The Latest on PTC 9 and What You Need to Know in Tallahassee

***11 PM (9/23) update***. With this update, the NHC backed off slightly on the wind intensity at landfall, with a cat 2 projected at landfall now. Regardless, very strong winds are expected and the potential impacts don’t change much.

With the 8PM (9/23) Advisory in on PTC 9, confidence is increasing that there will be a major hurricane off our coast Thursday afternoon, with impacts being felt through much of the Panhandle and Big Bend of Florida.

So What Do We Need to Know

These are the GFS ensemble models. Think of this as the American GFS model being run a bunch of times, with minor adjustments made to the input. When the models have a decent agreement, like they do here, this increases our confidence on where the storm could go. BUT, an important thing to keep in mind is this system has still not formed, which makes the forecasting just a little trickier. My takeaway from the computer models is the Gulf Coast of Florida needs to be prepared. If you haven't already, I would plan on getting essentials tomorrow.

What about the intensity models?

I want you to remember that intesnity forecasting is the hardest part of tropical forecasting. With that said, the waters of the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, with water temperatures in the mid 80s, making it prime for tropical intensification. Look, the set up for the system to get strong is there, and the models seem to agree that the system will be able to intensify as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center agrees, and has the storm intensifying to a category 3 hurricane before landfall. So, the message here is that it has the potential, and is expected to become a major hurricane.

What Will the Impacts Be?

Let's start with storm surge. As the storm approaches the coast, and makes landfall, the wind from the storm will push a bunch of water onto shore, on top of what is already there. This is where storm surge comes from, and it is often the deadliest part of hurricanes. So, if you find yourself in a coastal community, it is imperative to evacuate when officials tell you to. Verbatim from the National Hurricane Center discussion, they say "While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing".

Wind wise, I want you to remember that intensity is the hardest part of tropical forecasting. With that said, we are likely going to see major hurricane wind speeds in the big bend and panhandle of Florida. So, we need to prepare to see major hurricane (cat 3+) winds through much of the big bend and winds of 115mph+ moving through the area. When it comes to rainfall, I want you to remember that not only could we be dealing with the rainfall amounts itself, but remember your susceptibility to flooding. Tallahassee as a whole does not drain the best, so seeing 5+" of rain in a short time frame will likely increase the risk for flash flooding. If you feel unsafe in your house, apartment, dorm, or wherever you plan on hunkering down for the storm, I would recommend leaving before it becomes too late.

I want you to be safe as this system makes its way towards us. We still have time to prepare, but that time is quickly going to run out. Use the next day or two to prepare as needed, and have your plan in place by Thursday morning. If you plan on staying, make sure to stay up to date with local officials, as well as FSU if you are on campus. For the weather front, keep up to date with the National Hurricane Center. We'll continue to write here, but also keep up with FSU Weather on YouTube. I will also be posting on X, @RyanCedergrenWx. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out there. We will weather this together, and keep you safe and informed.