What is the Central American Gyre & why we need to pay attention to the tropics (but not panic)

We are just past the "peak" of hurricane season but with that said, hurricane season still runs until November 11. Safe to say, hurricane season is not over and we still need to keep our eyes to the tropics. Yesterday, the National Hurricane Center tagged an area to watch in the Gulf of Mexico that has a 40% chance of development in the next week. This area to watch is the result of a CAG low (or Central American Gyre).

What is a Central American Gyre?

The easiest way to think of a Central American Gyre is as an area of low pressure that forms over Central America. As air rises with low pressure, this results in instability in the atmosphere, with storms, rough surf, and mudslides impacting Central America. Small areas of localized spin can form around the gyre, which in turn can break off from the gyre and lead to possible tropical development. With a hard to find center of low pressure, the models have a VERY hard time predicting where and when tropical development can occur, and where it may go.

So, what do the models say?

It is important to remember that models are STRICTLY guidance, and not gospel. Every model is going to look at some different parameter, and spit out a different guidance. With the Central American Gyre being so difficult for models to initialize on, and models looking over a week out need to be taken lightly. When looking at models tropically, we are looking for model consistency and agreement. This means that run to run, the models are spitting out similar images, and between models, such as the American GFS, and the European Euro model, they agree. We don't have that in the models right now. Looking at the 6z GFS today, it wants the system to get strong, as it moves towards the Gulf Coast between Florida and Louisiana. The 0z European AI model keeps the system weaker, and brings it closer to the Florida Gulf Coast. With such inconsistency, and the struggles of the models with CAG lows, the takeaway from the models is that the U.S. Gulf Coast just needs to pay attention to the tropics over the next week. While the model runs can look scary, remember, the models are guidance not gospel.

What should your takeaway be?

The overall thing to remember here is that models are guidance not gospel. Every model will show something different, and stressing yourself over one particular model run is not worth it at all. The takeaway from this is that there is going to be something in the Gulf of Mexico late next week into the weekend to keep our eyes on. Keep tabs to the National Hurricane Center and local meteorologists for the latest updates. But remember now and every tropical season, models are guidance, not gospel. If you want to talk more about this system, reach out to me on Twitter/X, @RyanCedergrenWX. Have a great weekend - Ryan Cedergren

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